BTC/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave ④ Z-Leg Hits 76,320 — Rebound to 82,000 or Final Dip to 74,795
Bitcoin has extended its Wave ④ correction to 76,320. Our 19 October update mapped this decline toward the 77,800 zone, and price went somewhat further. The EWPlans chart now shows two clear scenarios.
Where Is BTC/USD Right Now?
Wave ③: completed at the (v) high near 87,272.
Wave ④: a complex W-X-Y-X-Z structure inside a descending channel:
W: (a)-(b)-(c), low near 82,557
X: rally back to 87,272
Y: (a)-(b)-(c), low near 80,200
X: (a)-(b)-(c), high near 84,843
Z: (a) ≈79,100, (b) ≈81,900, (c) low at 76,320
Current price is 77,061, after briefly breaking below the lower channel boundary.
Two Scenarios
Alternative 1 (blue): Z and Wave ④ are complete at 76,320, with a rebound toward ≈82,000.
Alternative 2 (red): One more dip to the 0.5 Fibonacci at 74,795, followed by a rebound toward ≈78,500.
Key Levels
87,272: Wave ③ high
84,843: X high
82,557 / 80,308 / 77,793: resistance
77,061: current price
76,320: Z/(c) low
74,795: 0.5 Fibonacci
Strategic Perspective
76,320 is the first level to watch. A hold favours Alternative 1; a close below activates Alternative 2.
A sustained close below 74,795 would require re-evaluating the count.
DXY direction and broader risk sentiment remain the main external variables.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s Wave ④ is at a decision point, with both paths clearly mapped. At EWPlans, we update H4 and D1 wave counts on BTC/USD and 38 other instruments every day.