BTC/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave (iii) Targets 3.618 Fibonacci at 73,773 — Bitcoin's Most Powerful Wave in Motion
Bitcoin's Elliott Wave structure is delivering one of the most precise and measurable bullish sequences in its 2026 history. From the multi-degree structural low at 57,735 through the Wave ① completion, Wave 2 correction, and now the internal Wave (iii) in full force — the Fibonacci sequence has been executing with textbook accuracy. With the 1.618 at 67,525 and the 2.618 at 70,649 already cleared, the 3.618 extension at 73,773 is the active target. Current price at 71,700 is advancing toward this level with full momentum. Here is the complete structural breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is BTC/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The BTC/USD H4 Elliott Wave story for August 2026 is built on one of the most structurally significant lows in Bitcoin's 2026 price history — a low that carries multi-degree confirmation.
The 57,735 Multi-Degree Structural Bottom:
The chart's far left shows the multi-degree terminal low at approximately 57,735 — labeled simultaneously as (v), 5, (5), V, (c), and 4 on the EWPlans chart. This convergence of multiple wave degree labels at a single price point is one of the strongest structural confirmation signals available in Elliott Wave analysis — representing the simultaneous completion of waves at multiple degrees of trend.
This 57,735 level now stands as the ultimate structural anchor for the entire bullish sequence that has followed.
Wave ① — Five-Wave Bullish Impulse Within Rising Channel (Complete):
From the 57,735 multi-degree bottom, Wave ① developed as a five-wave bullish impulse within a rising channel — clearly visible on the EWPlans chart:
(i) wave: Initial impulse from the base toward approximately 63,000+ — labeled (i) with the (iv) corrective structure visible
(ii) wave: Corrective pullback, labeled (ii) on the chart
(iii) wave: The most powerful internal advance, labeled (iii) — driving Bitcoin through the upper portion of the rising channel
(iv) wave: Internal corrective consolidation, labeled (iv) on the chart
(v) wave / Wave 1 terminal: The final wave completing Wave ① at approximately 67,500 — labeled (v) and 1 on the EWPlans chart
Wave 2 — Corrective Retracement (Complete):
Following the Wave ① terminal near 67,500, a corrective Wave 2 brought Bitcoin back to the 0.5 Fibonacci at 62,328 — labeled 0.5 (62,328) and 2 on the chart. This 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is a textbook Wave 2 depth — precisely the correct corrective depth for a standard Elliott Wave two-wave correction where Wave 1 was a clean five-wave impulse.
The 62,328 Wave 2 low is now the structural foundation from which the current Wave 3 sequence is developing.
Wave 3 — Internal (i)-(ii)-(iii) Sequence (NOW IN (iii) PHASE):
From the Wave 2 low at 62,328, a new large-scale Wave 3 launched with the following internal development:
Internal Wave (i): The first sub-wave of Wave 3, rallying from the 62,328 Wave 2 low toward approximately 66,000 — labeled (i) on the EWPlans chart.
Internal Wave (ii): The corrective retracement of Wave (i), pulling Bitcoin back toward the Invalid Level boundary at 62,216 — labeled (ii) on the chart. The precision with which Wave (ii) held above the Invalid Level at 62,216 — without closing below it — is one of the strongest structural confirmation signals in this analysis. When a corrective wave respects an invalidation boundary precisely, it confirms the structural integrity of the larger count.
Internal Wave (iii) — NOW IN FULL FORCE:
From the Wave (ii) low near 62,216, Wave (iii) — the most powerful sub-wave of Wave 3, and therefore the most powerful sub-wave of the entire sequence from 57,735 — launched with exceptional momentum. The Fibonacci extension sequence from Wave (iii) has been executing with remarkable precision:
1.618 Fibonacci at 67,525 ✅ — already cleared and now serving as support
2.618 Fibonacci at 70,649 ✅ — already cleared and now serving as secondary support
3.618 Fibonacci at 73,773 🎯 — the current active target, with price at 71,700 advancing toward this level
This sequential Fibonacci extension progression — from 1.618 to 2.618 to 3.618 — is one of the most structurally significant Elliott Wave momentum sequences visible in any asset class right now.
The Fibonacci Extension Sequence — Why It Matters
The sequential clearing of Fibonacci extension levels in Bitcoin's Wave (iii) is not a coincidence — it is a structural characteristic of a high-quality third wave in full motion:
1. Extended third waves frequently target the 3.618 Fibonacci. In Elliott Wave theory, third waves that are significantly extended — driving through the 1.618 and 2.618 extensions — often target the 3.618 level as their terminal zone. The sequential progression from 1.618 (67,525) ✅ to 2.618 (70,649) ✅ to 3.618 (73,773) 🎯 in Bitcoin's Wave (iii) is entirely consistent with an extended third wave in a high-quality five-wave impulse sequence.
2. Each Fibonacci level cleared becomes structural support. As Wave (iii) progresses through the Fibonacci sequence, each level cleared transitions from resistance to support. The 1.618 at 67,525 is now a structural support reference; the 2.618 at 70,649 is now a secondary support reference. As Wave (iii) advances toward 73,773, each cleared level reinforces the structural floor of the advance.
3. The momentum quality of Wave (iii) confirms the bullish count. The fact that Bitcoin has powered through two consecutive Fibonacci extension levels — 67,525 and 70,649 — with sustained momentum rather than stalling or reversing at each level confirms that Wave (iii) is a genuine extended third wave in a strong bullish impulse. Third waves that stall at the 1.618 or 2.618 typically indicate a lower-quality impulse; third waves that clear both and target the 3.618 indicate a high-quality, extended wave with strong structural backing.
4. Wave (ii) holding above 62,216 is the critical historical confirmation. The fact that Wave (ii) corrected to near the Invalid Level at 62,216 and held — without violating it — provided the structural confirmation that Wave 3 is valid and Wave (iii) is a genuine third-degree wave within it. This historical price action retroactively validates the current Wave (iii) advance at every new high it achieves.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
The primary Elliott Wave scenario for BTC/USD is clearly mapped with specific Fibonacci targets:
Current Phase — Wave (iii) completing near 73,773:
Bitcoin advances from current price 71,700 toward the 3.618 Fibonacci at 73,773. This represents an additional advance of approximately $2,073 from current price. The momentum character of Wave (iii) — having already cleared two consecutive Fibonacci extension levels — supports the advance toward 73,773 without major corrective interruptions.
Next Phase — Wave (iv) correction after (iii) completion:
Once Wave (iii) terminates near 73,773, a Wave (iv) corrective pullback will reset momentum before the final Wave (v) launches. Typical Wave (iv) corrections after extended Wave (iii)s retrace toward the 0.382 Fibonacci of the Wave (iii) advance — pointing toward approximately 69,000–70,000 as a Wave (iv) zone.
Final Phase — Wave (v) completing Wave 3:
After Wave (iv) completes, Wave (v) drives the final leg of Wave 3 to its completion — above the Wave (iii) high at 73,773 and potentially toward 75,000–78,000+ depending on wave equality and extension measurements.
Key structural reference points:
73,773: 3.618 Fibonacci — Wave (iii) primary target
71,700: Current price — Wave (iii) advancing
70,649: 2.618 Fibonacci — now support
69,298: Near structural reference
67,525: 1.618 Fibonacci — now strong support
66,921: Structural support
65,340: Wave (i) high reference
62,216: Invalid Level — hard structural floor
62,328: Wave 2 / 0.5 Fibonacci base
Strategic Perspective for Traders
1. The sequential Fibonacci progression makes Bitcoin's current setup uniquely measurable. The 1.618 → 2.618 → 3.618 extension sequence gives traders concrete, pre-mapped targets at each stage of Wave (iii). This structural precision is what makes Elliott Wave analysis particularly powerful for Bitcoin — when the wave structure is clean and the Fibonacci levels are being hit sequentially, the analytical confidence in the next target is elevated.
2. The 62,216 Invalid Level defines the entire bullish structure's risk. With Bitcoin at 71,700 and the Invalid Level at 62,216 — nearly $10,000 below — the structural risk reference for this Wave (iii) advance is exceptionally well-defined. Any H4 close below 62,216 would invalidate the current wave count and require fundamental reassessment.
3. Wave (iv) after 73,773 is the next high-quality entry opportunity. When Wave (iii) completes near 73,773, the Wave (iv) pullback that follows will create the next structural entry zone before Wave (v). Traders who understand the Elliott Wave context can prepare for this Wave (iv) entry opportunity — positioned for Wave (v) — rather than reacting to the correction emotionally.
4. Bitcoin's Wave 3 context within the larger sequence is critical. This entire (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) internal sequence is the Wave 3 of the broader structure from the 57,735 low. When Wave 3 completes (after internal waves (iii), (iv), and (v)), Wave 4 will follow before Wave 5 makes the final push of the larger sequence. Understanding where Bitcoin stands within this multi-wave framework provides the context for medium-term positioning.
5. Crypto market correlation and macro context. Bitcoin's Wave (iii) advance is developing during a period of specific macro conditions — including DXY's own Wave ② correction (Alt.1 / Alt.2 scenarios) and broader risk asset conditions. DXY's potential Wave ③ advance toward 101.80+ would typically be a headwind for Bitcoin, but the structural quality of BTC's own wave count suggests the bullish trajectory is maintaining against this macro pressure.
Conclusion — Follow Bitcoin's Wave Structure With EWPlans
BTC/USD is executing one of its most structurally measurable Elliott Wave sequences of 2026. Wave (iii) has cleared both the 1.618 (67,525) and 2.618 (70,649) Fibonacci extensions and is now targeting the 3.618 at 73,773. The Fibonacci sequence, the (ii) wave's precise respect of the Invalid Level at 62,216, and the momentum quality of the advance all point to the same conclusion: Bitcoin's most powerful wave is in motion, and 73,773 is the next structural milestone. The Elliott Wave map has defined each level in advance — and each level is being reached.
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