BTC/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave (iv) Rally Completing — Wave (v) Targets 57,735 to End 5-Wave Structure
Is Bitcoin setting up for its final bearish leg before a major structural low? The H4 Elliott Wave structure makes a compelling case. After completing a complex W-X-Y Wave 4 correction near 67,500, BTC/USD launched a clean five-wave bearish impulse as Wave 5. Waves (i), (ii), and (iii) have all printed with structural clarity — Wave (iii) reaching the 57,735 zone — and the corrective Wave (iv) rally is now active near 64,083. Once Wave (iv) exhausts in the 62,381–65,261 zone, Wave (v) is projected to complete the entire five-wave structure at the 57,735 Invalid Level. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is BTC/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The BTC/USD H4 Elliott Wave sequence begins with the completion of a large-scale corrective structure that formed Wave 4 of the broader bearish sequence. This correction took the form of a W-X-Y triple structure:
(w) wave rallied to approximately the 3.618 Fibonacci level at 64,421 — the first corrective leg establishing the W-wave top
(x) wave pulled back to approximately 60,500 — the corrective mid-point of the W-X-Y structure
(y) wave extended the correction to approximately 67,500 — completing the entire Wave 4 W-X-Y structure at the (y) terminal high, labeled as 4/(y) on the EWPlans chart
The large Fibonacci extension levels visible on the left of the chart — 1.618 (71,929), 2.618 (68,175), 3.618 (64,421), and 4.618 (60,667) — provide the structural framework for the prior impulsive decline and the Wave 4 corrective rally that followed.
Wave 5 Bearish Impulse — Now Developing:
From the Wave 4 / (y) top near 67,500, the final five-wave bearish impulse launched with clear sub-wave structure:
Wave (i): Dropped from the 4/(y) high toward approximately 61,500, establishing the first directional leg of Wave 5 and confirming the corrective structure was complete.
Wave (ii): Produced a corrective rally back toward approximately 65,500 — a significant counter-trend bounce before the most powerful leg of the sequence began. The internal structure showed a (i)-(ii) sub-wave pattern that confirmed Wave 5's internal development.
Wave (iii): The most extended and aggressive sub-wave of Wave 5. An internal (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv) sequence drove BTC/USD steadily lower within a descending channel, with the terminal (v) wave completing Wave (iii) at approximately 57,735 — the level now established as the Invalid Level for the entire bullish count that follows. The (iii) low at 57,735 is the deepest structural point in the entire Wave 5 sequence to date.
Wave (iv) — NOW ACTIVE: The corrective bounce from the Wave (iii) low near 57,735 is now underway. Wave (iv) has rallied from the structural low toward the current price of 64,083 as of July 7, 2026. The corrective rally is approaching the key Fibonacci retracement zone:
0.382 retracement → 62,381 (lower boundary of expected Wave (iv) range)
1.618 extension reference → 65,261 (upper boundary / structural ceiling for Wave (iv))
Current price at 64,083 sits between these two reference points, suggesting Wave (iv) may have further to travel before completing near the 65,261 zone.
Wave (v) — NEXT: Once Wave (iv) completes in the 62,381–65,261 zone, the final wave of the entire five-wave bearish impulse sequence targets the 57,735 Invalid Level zone — the structural destination that would complete Wave 5 and open the door for a major directional reversal.
The Wave 4 W-X-Y Structure — Why It Matters
The complexity of the Wave 4 W-X-Y correction visible on the left side of the chart is worth specific attention, as it provides important context for the Wave 5 impulse that followed.
In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 corrections in major market structures tend to be more complex than Wave 2 corrections — often taking the form of triangles, flat corrections, or combinations like W-X-Y. The BTC/USD Wave 4 produced a W-X-Y combination that spanned from the Wave 3 low through the (y) high at 67,500.
The depth and complexity of this Wave 4 — covering a range from approximately 60,500 to 67,500 — is consistent with a typical fourth-wave correction in a major bearish impulse. The (y) terminal high at 67,500 aligning with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension zone of the broader structure gives additional structural weight to the Wave 4 completion signal.
When Wave 4 tops at a key Fibonacci level with a W-X-Y terminal structure, the Wave 5 that follows tends to be well-defined and structured — which is exactly what the current five-wave decline from 67,500 to 57,735 (Wave iii) has demonstrated.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
The primary Elliott Wave scenario is clearly mapped: Wave (iv) corrective rally completes somewhere in the 62,381–65,261 zone, after which Wave (v) launches the final bearish leg toward the 57,735 Invalid Level target zone.
The 57,735 zone carries dual significance in the current wave count:
1. As the Wave (iii) low: The prior structural low at 57,735 is a natural reference point for Wave (v) — fifth waves frequently target the range established by the prior third wave's terminal low, particularly when the third wave was itself extended.
2. As the Invalid Level: The 57,735 level represents the structural floor below which the corrective wave count that would follow a Wave 5 completion becomes the primary framework. A decisive break and hold below 57,735 would signal that Wave 5 is extending further — potentially toward the 55,000–56,000 zone.
Key structural reference points for the Wave (v) sequence:
65,261: Wave (iv) upper boundary — structural ceiling for the corrective rally
64,083: Current price — Wave (iv) active
62,381: Wave (iv) lower boundary / 0.382 retracement
61,281: Near-term structural support
59,524: Intermediate support zone
57,735: Wave (v) primary target / Invalid Level
Strategic Perspective for Traders
The BTC/USD H4 Elliott Wave setup provides a precise structural framework for navigating Bitcoin at what may be one of its most consequential technical junctures of 2026:
1. The 65,261 zone is the structural ceiling for Wave (iv). The 1.618 Fibonacci reference at 65,261 represents the maximum expected extent of the Wave (iv) corrective rally. Any H4 close above this level would question the current five-wave count and require reassessment — but as long as price remains below it, the Wave (v) thesis remains structurally valid.
2. Wave (iv) rallies are structural — not reversals. The current bounce from 57,735 to 64,083 is a fourth-wave corrective structure within the larger Wave 5 bearish impulse. In a properly-developing five-wave sequence, Wave (iv) must occur — it resets momentum and sentiment before the final leg. The current rally is not a structural trend change signal.
3. The 57,735 target zone is the most important level for the medium-term BTC outlook. If Wave (v) drives price back toward the 57,735 low and the structure confirms a five-wave impulse completion, the Elliott Wave framework would indicate that the entire bearish sequence from the 4/(y) high is complete — setting up the potential for a significant bullish reversal and new impulsive move to the upside.
4. The W-X-Y Wave 4 top at 67,500 becomes long-term resistance. The Wave 4 / (y) high near 67,500 is now a significant structural ceiling for any recovery that follows Wave 5 completion. The first resistance cluster above the 57,735 base would be the 60,667–64,421 Fibonacci zone, with 67,500 as the major resistance beyond.
5. Macro correlation with risk assets and DXY remains critical. Bitcoin continues to trade with significant correlation to broad risk appetite. With DXY's Wave ③ advancing toward 102.397, the sustained dollar strength environment is structurally consistent with the BTC Wave (v) bearish thesis. Monitoring DXY for Wave ③ completion will provide advance signals for potential BTC structural reversal timing.
Conclusion — Follow Bitcoin's Wave Structure With EWPlans
BTC/USD is at a precise and well-mapped structural moment. Wave (iv) is completing its corrective rally in the 62,381–65,261 zone, the 57,735 target defines the Wave (v) destination, and the completion of the entire five-wave structure from the 67,500 high could represent the most significant Bitcoin structural low of 2026. The Elliott Wave framework provides the clearest available map for where BTC stands and what comes next.
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