EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave (3) Reaches 2.618 Fibonacci at 1.1276 — Bounce or Continuation Next
EUR/USD has delivered one of the sharpest and most extended Elliott Wave declines of 2026 — and has now reached a key structural decision point. After a corrective rally that peaked near the 0.5 Fibonacci at 1.17036, the pair launched a bearish Wave (3) that drove sharply lower through five internal sub-waves, reaching the 2.618 Fibonacci extension at 1.12759. The EWPlans chart now maps two possible paths from here. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is EUR/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The C/(2) High — 1.17036:
The chart's left side shows a large-scale A-B-C corrective rally completing at the C/(2) high near the 0.5 Fibonacci at 1.17036. This high marks the origin of the current bearish impulse.
Wave (3) — Internal Impulse Development:
From the C/(2) high, the decline unfolded through a detailed internal sequence:
i-ii-iii-iv-(i)/v: The initial five-wave leg lower, bottoming near 1.1656
A corrective rally (α-b-c internal structure): A brief countertrend bounce to the 0.618 Fibonacci at 1.16560 — labeled (ii)/c on the chart
①-②-③-④-⑤ sequence: A second, larger five-wave decline developed from this ii/c high, with:
① wave: ≈1.1566
② wave: corrective bounce
③/(1) wave: ≈1.1500
④/(4) wave: corrective bounce
⑤/(5)/(3) wave: ≈1.1350
iv wave: brief corrective bounce
⑤/iii/v wave — the final sharp leg: driving to the current zone, illustrated by the steep curved red arrow on the EWPlans chart
The 2.618 Fibonacci Target — Reached:
The decline has now reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension at 1.12759, labeled on the EWPlans chart. Current price at 1.12884 sits essentially at this level — marking the completion zone of this extended downward impulse.
Two Scenarios From Here
1. The Blue Dotted Path — Corrective Bounce:
After such a sharp and extended five-wave decline reaching a major Fibonacci extension, the EWPlans chart maps a short-term corrective bounce toward:
0.382 Fibonacci at 1.14139
0.5 Fibonacci at 1.14598
This would be a structurally normal countertrend reaction after an extended impulsive move — not necessarily a full trend reversal.
2. The Red Dotted Path — Continuation:
If the 1.12759/1.12654 zone fails to hold, the chart maps continued decline toward the 3.618 Fibonacci extension at 1.11306.
Strategic Perspective for Traders
1. The 1.12759–1.12654 zone is the key decision area right now. Price behavior here — reversal signals vs. a decisive break — determines which of the two mapped paths unfolds.
2. The decline's sharpness reflects strong impulsive character. The accelerating curve down to this zone is consistent with a genuine impulsive wave, which increases the likelihood of at least a corrective reaction once the Fibonacci target is reached.
3. DXY's own Wave ③ advance (targeting the 2.618 Fibonacci at 102.018) is the key macro driver behind EUR/USD's decline. As long as the dollar's structural advance continues, it remains a headwind for EUR/USD even during any corrective bounce phase.
4. Watch both Fibonacci zones for the next directional signal. A clean hold and bounce from 1.1276 supports the 1.1414–1.1460 scenario; a decisive break opens the door to 1.1131.
Conclusion — Follow EUR/USD's Wave Structure With EWPlans
EUR/USD has reached a major structural decision point after an extended and sharp Wave (3) decline to the 2.618 Fibonacci at 1.12759. The next move — a corrective bounce toward 1.1414–1.1460, or continuation toward 1.1131 — will define the pair's structural path for October 2026.
At EWPlans, we publish H4 and D1 Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD and 38 other instruments every single day. Our EWP Nexus-powered wave counts give forex traders the structural clarity to track key Fibonacci completion zones as they develop.
👉 Get daily wave counts for EUR/USD and 38 more instruments — Start Your Analysis at EWPlans.com