UR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave (iv) Completing — Wave (v) Targets 1.1331 as (3) Impulse Nears End
Is EUR/USD setting up for its most significant bearish leg yet in 2026? The H4 Elliott Wave structure makes a compelling case. Since reversing from its April high near 1.1849 — precisely at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level — the pair has been tracing a powerful Wave (3) impulse with remarkable structural clarity. Waves (i), (ii), and (iii) have all printed cleanly, and the corrective Wave (iv) bounce is now entering its final c-leg phase near 1.1451. With Wave (v) targeting 1.13307 on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, the full Elliott Wave roadmap for EUR/USD is the clearest it has been all year.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is EUR/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The EUR/USD H4 Elliott Wave structure begins with the completion of the large-scale Wave (2) near 1.1849 in April 2026. This level aligned precisely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the preceding Wave (1) decline — a classic and highly reliable reversal zone in Elliott Wave theory. The C/(v) label on the EWPlans chart confirms this was the terminal point of the entire (2) correction.
From the 1.1849 peak, Wave (3) — the most powerful wave in any Elliott Wave impulse sequence — began its downward march. The internal structure has unfolded with exceptional precision:
Wave (i): The first leg lower from the (2) peak, driving EUR/USD down to approximately 1.1493 before the first corrective bounce began. Clean impulsive character with no overlap violations.
Wave (ii): The corrective phase following Wave (i), unfolding as an a-b-c zigzag. The a-leg rallied, the b-leg pulled back, and the c-leg completed Wave (ii) near 1.1788 — establishing the structural high for the corrective phase before the most powerful leg of the sequence began.
Wave (iii): The most extended and aggressive sub-wave of the entire (3) impulse. Wave (iii) subdivided internally into its own i-ii-iii-iv-v structure, with the internal iii being particularly powerful. The entire Wave (iii) drove EUR/USD from the (ii) high down to approximately 1.1500, with the terminal v/(iii) label confirming its completion. Inside Wave (iii), a complex (A)-(B)-(C) / (D)-(E) corrective structure formed during the internal iv phase — a contracting triangle that resolved lower before the final v/(iii) leg completed the wave.
Wave (iv) — NOW ACTIVE: The current corrective structure began from the Wave (iii) low. Wave (iv) is tracing an internal a-b-c pattern:
Internal a-wave: Rallied from the Wave (iii) low, establishing the first upward corrective leg
Internal b-wave: Pulled back, creating the base for the c-wave
Internal c-wave: Currently in its final phase near 1.14513 — the current price as of June 22, 2026
The Invalid Level at 1.16219 is the hard structural ceiling for Wave (iv). Any confirmed H4 close above this level invalidates the current wave count and requires reassessment.
Wave (v) — NEXT: Once Wave (iv) completes, the final leg of the Wave (3) impulse is mapped to target:
TP 1 → 1.14419 (1.0 Fibonacci extension)
TP 2 → 1.13307 (1.618 Fibonacci extension — primary target)
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
The primary Elliott Wave scenario is clearly defined: Wave (iv)'s internal c-leg completes somewhere in the 1.1451–1.1622 zone, respecting the 1.16219 Invalid Level ceiling. From there, Wave (v) launches the final directional push lower toward the mapped Fibonacci targets.
The two-target structure for Wave (v) reflects the typical range of fifth-wave extension. In moderate impulse sequences, Wave (v) equals Wave (i) in length — pointing to TP 1 at 1.14419. In extended sequences where Wave (iii) was particularly powerful, Wave (v) reaches the 1.618 extension — pointing to the primary target of TP 2 at 1.13307.
The completion of Wave (v) would conclude the entire Wave (3) impulse from the 1.1849 peak. Following this, a significant Wave (4) correction would be expected — potentially a multi-week counter-trend rally back toward the 38.2%–61.8% retracement of Wave (3)'s full range. But that comes only after Wave (v) prints its low.
Key structural reference points to monitor:
1.16219: Hard invalidation ceiling — no H4 close above this
1.14997: Near-term resistance within Wave (iv) structure
1.14513: Current price — Wave (iv) c-leg in final phase
1.14419: TP 1 — first Wave (v) Fibonacci target
1.13307: TP 2 — primary Wave (v) 1.618 Fibonacci target
Strategic Perspective for Traders
The EUR/USD H4 Elliott Wave setup provides a comprehensive structural framework for approaching the world's most-traded currency pair:
1. The 1.16219 Invalid Level is the most critical number on this chart. Every H4 candle that closes below 1.16219 confirms Wave (iv) is intact and Wave (v) thesis remains valid. A close above it changes the structural picture entirely — the wave count needs reassessment and the bearish thesis loses its primary basis.
2. The 0.618 Fibonacci rejection at 1.1849 was the defining moment. Wave (2) reversing precisely at the 0.618 Fib of Wave (1) is a textbook Elliott Wave setup. This structural precision at the macro level gives additional confidence to the Wave (3) impulse count that followed — when the larger structure is clean, the sub-waves tend to follow with greater reliability.
3. Wave (iii) anatomy confirms the bear impulse quality. The internal complexity of Wave (iii) — including the (A)-(B)-(C)/(D)-(E) triangle structure within its internal iv — is characteristic of a powerful, high-quality bearish impulse. Complex internal structures in Wave (iii) often precede decisive Wave (v) completions.
4. TP 1 vs TP 2 — which target matters more? TP 1 at 1.14419 is the minimum Wave (v) target and the first structural reference for completion. TP 2 at 1.13307 is the higher-probability target given the extension character of this entire Wave (3) sequence. Traders should frame their structural expectations around both levels, watching for completion signals near each.
5. ECB and Fed policy are the primary macro override risks. EUR/USD is the most macroeconomically sensitive major pair. A dovish Federal Reserve pivot or hawkish ECB surprise could compress Wave (iv) upward, threatening the 1.16219 invalidation level. Monitor central bank communications carefully alongside the wave count.
Conclusion — Follow EUR/USD's Wave Structure With EWPlans
EUR/USD is at a precise and well-mapped structural moment. Wave (iv) is completing its corrective bounce, the 1.16219 Invalid Level defines the setup's validity, and Wave (v) — targeting 1.13307 on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension — may be the most significant bearish leg of the entire Wave (3) sequence. The Elliott Wave framework delivers a structural clarity that no other form of technical analysis can match at this level of precision.
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