SOL/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave ③ Peaks at 102.97 — Wave ④ Targets 91.25 Before Wave ⑤ Launches Above 103
Solana has delivered one of the most structurally extraordinary Elliott Wave advances in the crypto market this cycle. From the complex double zigzag corrective base near 70.524, SOL/USD has surged through a precise five-wave impulse sequence — completing Wave ③ at 102.97 with exceptional momentum. Now Wave ④ is pulling back toward the 0.382 Fibonacci at 91.247 — the structural buy zone before Wave ⑤ drives above the Wave ③ high and into new structural territory. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is SOL/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The SOL/USD H4 Elliott Wave picture for August 2026 tells a two-part story: a complex multi-week corrective phase that built a structural base, followed by one of the most powerful and rapid Elliott Wave advances in the crypto space this cycle.
The ②/ii Double Zigzag Corrective Base — 70.524:
The left portion of the chart shows the extended corrective period that defined SOL/USD's July 2026 trading range. The complex W-X-Y double zigzag correction developed with the following structure:
(A)/(B)/(C)/w: The first W-wave of the double zigzag, with (A), (B), and (C) sub-waves visible — labeled on the left portion of the chart
(X): The connecting X-wave between W and Y, visible as the counter-trend bounce near the left portion
(B)/(X): A second X-wave or B-wave visible in the middle corrective section — labeled (B) and (X) on the chart
(Y)/(②)/ii terminal: The final Y-wave completing the entire double zigzag at approximately 70.524 — labeled (②) and ii on the EWPlans chart, confirming this as the large-scale Wave ② / ii structural bottom
The 70.524 level now represents the Invalid Level — the hard structural floor below which the entire bullish count would require reassessment.
The Internal ①-② Sequence Within the New Impulse:
From the 70.524 base, an initial impulse sequence developed:
① wave: First advance from the base toward approximately 76–77 — labeled (1) and ① on the chart
② wave: Corrective retracement to approximately 72–73 — labeled (2) and ② on the chart
This ①-② setup provided the structural foundation for the explosive sequence that followed.
The Explosive Wave ③ Advance — Internal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) Structure:
From the ② corrective low, Solana entered one of its most explosive Elliott Wave impulse phases:
Internal (1) wave: The initial explosive thrust from the corrective base, driving SOL/USD from approximately 73 through the 83–84 zone — labeled (1) on the EWPlans chart. This wave represented the initial breakout from the extended corrective range.
Internal (2) wave: A corrective pause from the (1) high, pulling back toward approximately 80 — labeled (2) on the chart. This brief reset before the most powerful segment of the advance.
Internal (3) wave: The most powerful sub-wave — labeled (3) on the EWPlans chart — driving SOL/USD from approximately 80 through the 97–100 zone. This is the wave that delivered the dramatic near-vertical price action visible on the chart in mid-to-late August. The structural momentum of this advance — covering approximately 17–20 points in a compressed timeframe — is characteristic of a third wave in full extension.
Internal (4) wave: The corrective consolidation from the (3) high, labeled (4) on the chart, pulling back toward approximately 94. The 0.382 Fibonacci at the (4) level — visible as the 0.382 (91.24666) annotation on the chart — defines the expected structural depth for the current larger Wave ④ correction.
Internal (5)/③ terminal: The final sub-wave, labeled (5) and ③ on the EWPlans chart, completing at approximately 102.97 — the structural peak of the entire Wave ③ advance and the highest level SOL/USD has reached in the current cycle.
Wave ④ — NOW ACTIVE:
From the Wave ③ terminal at 102.97, the corrective Wave ④ has begun. Current price at 96.062 is declining through the corrective phase, heading toward the 0.382 Fibonacci at 91.247 — the primary structural target for Wave ④ completion.
The blue wave arrow on the EWPlans chart projects the complete ④-⑤ sequence:
Wave ④ declining toward ≈91.25 (0.382 Fibonacci)
Wave ⑤ launching from 91.25 — driving above 102.97 toward new structural highs
The Double Zigzag Base — Why It Elevated the Subsequent Impulse
The complex W-X-Y double zigzag that formed the ②/ii base near 70.524 is not just historical context — it is structurally significant for understanding the quality and potential of the impulse that followed:
1. Double zigzag corrections typically precede powerful impulses. In Elliott Wave theory, complex multi-wave corrective structures — particularly double zigzags — tend to precede exceptionally strong directional impulses. The market's reluctance to decline further during the complex correction (continuing to form corrective waves rather than impulsive ones) was a structural signal that the buying pressure was building toward a significant advance.
2. The ②/ii multi-label terminal confirms the structural significance of 70.524. The simultaneous labeling of the 70.524 low as both (②) and ii — confirming it as a terminal at multiple wave degrees — is one of the strongest bullish structural signals available in Elliott Wave analysis. Multi-degree terminals in corrective positions create the most powerful subsequent impulses, because the corrective pressure has been exhausted at multiple degrees simultaneously.
3. The correction's duration loaded exceptional impulsive potential. The extended corrective period — spanning much of July through mid-August 2026 — consolidated price within a relatively tight range while building the structural tension for the explosive advance. Extended corrections in time (rather than price) often produce the most powerful and rapid subsequent impulses — exactly what Solana's third wave demonstrated.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
The primary Elliott Wave scenario for SOL/USD is precisely mapped:
Current Phase — Wave ④ corrective pullback:
SOL/USD declines from current price 96.062 toward the 0.382 Fibonacci at 91.247. This represents approximately 4.8 additional points of corrective decline from current price. The corrective character of Wave ④ — following the explosive Wave ③ — means this pullback will be corrective (three-wave A-B-C) rather than impulsive, providing structural clarity during the decline.
Next Phase — Wave ⑤ advance from 91.25:
Once Wave ④ completes near 91.25, Wave ⑤ launches the final bullish impulse of the sequence. Wave ⑤ targets above the Wave ③ high at 102.97, driving SOL/USD into new structural territory. The minimum Wave ⑤ target (equality with Wave ①) points toward approximately 104–106+, with extended scenarios possible given the momentum character of this entire sequence.
Key structural reference points:
102.971: Wave ③ high — primary resistance / Wave ⑤ minimum target threshold
100.000: Psychological resistance
98.000: Intermediate resistance
96.062: Current price — Wave ④ declining
93.000: Near support within Wave ④
91.247: 0.382 Fibonacci — Wave ④ primary target (structural buy zone)
83.893: Structural support (prior resistance zone)
78.815: Deeper support reference
70.524: Invalid Level — hard structural floor
Strategic Perspective for Traders
1. The 91.25 zone is the highest-quality structural entry in the current SOL/USD setup. The 0.382 Fibonacci at 91.247 — following a Wave ③ that covered over 30 points — creates the most structurally validated entry reference for Wave ⑤ positioning. When Wave ③ is as powerful as Solana's has been, the Wave ④ at the 0.382 Fibonacci typically launches a Wave ⑤ of significant magnitude.
2. The explosive Wave ③ magnitude implies a meaningful Wave ⑤. In Elliott Wave sequences where Wave ③ is dramatically extended — as it is in SOL/USD, covering from approximately 73 to 102.97 — the Wave ⑤ that follows tends to be proportionally significant. The minimum expectation (Wave ⑤ not shorter than Wave ① and Wave ③) points toward a target above 102.97, with Fibonacci extension measurements suggesting 104–108+ as potential extended targets.
3. The 70.524 Invalid Level provides exceptional structural confidence. With the expected Wave ④ completion at 91.25 and the Invalid Level at 70.524 — over 20 points below — the structural risk framework for Wave ⑤ positioning from the 91.25 zone is one of the most generous in the current crypto landscape. The potential reward-to-structural-risk ratio from 91.25 to 103+ is exceptional by any standard.
4. Wave ④ corrections after explosive Wave ③ advances are typically controlled. When Wave ③ covers territory as rapidly as Solana's did, the Wave ④ that follows tends to be more controlled and time-limited than price-deep. The 0.382 Fibonacci target at 91.25 is consistent with this pattern — a relatively contained pullback before the Wave ⑤ thrust.
5. BTC correlation and broader crypto market context. SOL/USD rarely moves independently of Bitcoin's structural context. With BTC's own Wave (iii) targeting the 3.618 Fibonacci at 73,773 and the broader crypto bull market conditions intact, Solana's Wave ④ pullback to 91.25 is occurring within a structurally supportive macro context for the Wave ⑤ advance.
Conclusion — Follow Solana's Wave Structure With EWPlans
SOL/USD has delivered one of the most structurally precise and explosively powerful Elliott Wave sequences in the current crypto market. Wave ③ peaked at 102.97 after a relentless advance from the ②/ii double zigzag base at 70.524. Wave ④ is now correcting toward the 0.382 Fibonacci at 91.247 — and once it completes there, Wave ⑤ is the structural move that drives Solana above 102.97 toward new highs. The blue wave arrow maps the journey. The Fibonacci levels define the entry and the target. The Elliott Wave structure delivers the complete picture.
At EWPlans, we publish H4 and D1 Elliott Wave analysis on SOL/USD and 38 other instruments every single day. Our EWP Nexus-powered wave counts give crypto traders the structural precision to identify Wave ④ pullback zones, time Wave ⑤ entries, and navigate the most consequential moves in Solana and every other major market they follow.
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