USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave ③ Impulse Targets 0.8144 as Correction Ends
Is USD/CHF setting up for its strongest move of the year? The H4 Elliott Wave structure suggests the multi-month corrective phase is firmly behind us — and a powerful new bullish impulse is now underway. After completing a textbook W-X-Y double zigzag correction and printing clean Wave ① and ② sequences, USD/CHF is now deep inside Wave ③. The internal (ii) retracement has completed near 0.7926, and the next sub-wave may be the most significant directional move in this entire sequence. Here is the full breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is USD/CHF Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The USD/CHF Elliott Wave story on H4 begins with a well-defined top near 0.8042 — labeled as Wave ① (v) — from which an extended multi-degree correction unfolded across April and May 2026. This correction took the form of a W-X-Y double zigzag:
W wave completed as an (A)-(B)-(C) zigzag into the April lows near the 0.7695 zone
X wave produced a corrective bounce into late April, recovering toward the 0.7730 area
Y wave completed as an a-b-c zigzag, with the final (c) leg driving price down to 0.7756 in early May — marking the structural low and the end of the entire correction (labeled as Wave 2 on the chart)
From the 0.7756 low, a new bullish impulse sequence launched:
Wave ① (Intermediate): Rallied cleanly from the May structural low, completing near 0.7930 in early June (labeled as minor wave i)
Wave ② (Intermediate): Corrected back to the 0.7780 zone — a classic deep retracement — completing in early June (labeled as minor wave ii)
Wave ③ (Intermediate) — NOW ACTIVE: The most powerful wave of the sequence is in progress. Inside Wave ③:
Internal wave (i) topped near 0.8020
Internal wave (ii) has retraced to 0.7926 — the current price as of June 17, 2026
Internal wave (iii) is next — historically the strongest and most extended sub-wave of any impulse
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 0.8144 is the primary target for Wave ③, marked as TP on the EWPlans chart. The critical invalidation level sits at 0.7868 — a confirmed H4 close below this level would invalidate the current bullish count.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
The primary Elliott Wave scenario calls for internal wave (iii) of Wave ③ to launch from the current 0.7926 area and push USD/CHF toward the 0.8042–0.8144 range in the coming sessions. The sequence would be:
Internal (iii) accelerates above 0.8020 — reclaiming the prior internal (i) high
Internal (iv) produces a brief corrective pause
Internal (v) completes Wave ③ at or near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension: 0.8144
After Wave ③ completes, a Wave ④ correction will follow before Wave ⑤ makes the final push in the larger bullish sequence. The broader trend bias remains firmly bullish as long as price holds above the 0.7868 invalidation level.
Strategic Perspective for Traders
The USD/CHF H4 Elliott Wave setup offers several clear structural reference points for traders approaching this market:
1. The 0.7926 zone is the key near-term structural pivot. Internal wave (ii) completing here means this area transitions from support to invalidation boundary on any dip. A sustained hold above 0.7868 keeps the bullish scenario alive.
2. Wave (iii) moves are typically fast and impulsive. In Elliott Wave theory, third waves are the most powerful. If the structure is correct, USD/CHF could cover significant ground toward 0.8042 and beyond in a relatively short time frame — with limited corrective pullbacks along the way.
3. The 0.8042 level is the first major reference point. The former Wave ① top near 0.8042 will likely act as interim resistance. A decisive break above it would strongly confirm that Wave ③ is well underway and targeting 0.8144.
4. The 0.7868 invalidation level is non-negotiable. Any H4 close below this level means the wave count needs to be reassessed. It does not necessarily mean a reversal to the lows — but it does mean the current bullish sub-wave structure is incorrect.
5. DXY and SNB policy are key macro variables. USD/CHF is directly influenced by broad dollar strength (DXY) and Swiss National Bank policy. Any SNB intervention or significant shift in Fed expectations could override the technical structure.
Conclusion — Follow the Wave Structure With EWPlans
USD/CHF is at a structurally significant moment. The multi-month correction is complete, the new bullish impulse is confirmed through Waves ① and ②, and internal Wave ③ is now loading its most powerful sub-wave. The Fibonacci roadmap is clear: 0.8144 is the structural target, and 0.7868 is the line that defines the setup's validity.
At EWPlans, we publish H4 and D1 Elliott Wave analysis on USD/CHF and 38 other instruments every single day. Our EWP Nexus-powered wave counts give structure-focused traders the edge they need — before the market moves.
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