April 2026 oil market report. Analyzing the Strait of Hormuz tensions and critical wave (iv) correction targets for WTI according to Elliott Wave Theory.
April 2026 is marking a turning point in global energy markets. With military conflicts between the US-Israel coalition and Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices tested the $120 levels last month. However, markets never move in a straight line. From an Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) perspective, we observe that the current pullback is not a panic sell-off but a healthy technical correction.
Elliott Wave Analysis: The WTI Oil chart clearly shows the completion of the wave (iii) impulse, with the pair now navigating the wave (iv) corrective phase. As the internal structure of this correction unfolds in an (A)-(B)-(C) sequence, we observe price gravitating toward the $73.17 area, representing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
Key Technical Summary:
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Wave (iii): Concluded at the $120 peak after the initial shock.
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Wave (iv): Currently active, targeting the $73.17 - $82.00 support cluster.
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Wave (v): Anticipated to trigger a move toward $140+ if geopolitical supply issues persist.
Geopolitical Context: Why It Matters: Latest intelligence indicates that the Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to full security. While emergency reserve releases by the IEA have cooled prices temporarily, the structural supply deficit remains unresolved. The completion of wave (iv) within the $73-$82 range would indicate that the market has "priced in" the current risk but anticipates further escalation.
Conclusion: Technical data suggests that as long as the $73.17 level holds, oil is preparing for an even larger impulsive wave (v). Investors should focus on these technical levels and wave structures rather than news flow speculation to manage their risks effectively in these volatile times.
April 2026 is marking a turning point in global energy markets. With military conflicts between the US-Israel coalition and Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices tested the $120 levels last month. However, markets never move in a straight line. From an Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) perspective, we observe that the current pullback is not a panic sell-off but a healthy technical correction.
Elliott Wave Analysis: The WTI Oil chart clearly shows the completion of the wave (iii) impulse, with the pair now navigating the wave (iv) corrective phase. As the internal structure of this correction unfolds in an (A)-(B)-(C) sequence, we observe price gravitating toward the $73.17 area, representing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
Key Technical Summary:
-
Wave (iii): Concluded at the $120 peak after the initial shock.
-
Wave (iv): Currently active, targeting the $73.17 - $82.00 support cluster.
-
Wave (v): Anticipated to trigger a move toward $140+ if geopolitical supply issues persist.
Geopolitical Context: Why It Matters: Latest intelligence indicates that the Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to full security. While emergency reserve releases by the IEA have cooled prices temporarily, the structural supply deficit remains unresolved. The completion of wave (iv) within the $73-$82 range would indicate that the market has "priced in" the current risk but anticipates further escalation.
Conclusion: Technical data suggests that as long as the $73.17 level holds, oil is preparing for an even larger impulsive wave (v). Investors should focus on these technical levels and wave structures rather than news flow speculation to manage their risks effectively in these volatile times.