XAG/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Silver Wave 4 (c)-Leg Targets 61.19 Before Wave 5 Drives to 50.00
Silver's Elliott Wave structure is now in its most consequential pre-final-wave position of 2026. After a precise five-wave bearish impulse drove Wave 3 to the 54.776 structural low, Wave 4 launched a complex corrective structure — including a textbook contracting triangle (b) wave — and the triangle's breakout has now activated the (c)-leg advance toward the 0.382 Fibonacci at 61.189. Once Wave 4 exhausts near this level, Wave 5 — the terminal 5/(C)/Z/(IV) bearish impulse — is projected to complete the entire sequence at the 50.00 structural target. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is XAG/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The XAG/USD H4 Elliott Wave story for August 2026 continues the multi-month bearish sequence that originated from the 89.38 historical peak. The current structure represents the fourth and penultimate wave of the final five-wave descent — and the corrective structure that Wave 4 has produced is among the most structurally precise in the entire sequence.
Prior Structure — The Large-Scale Triangle Top and Wave 1-2-3:
The chart's left side shows the A-B-C-D-E contracting triangle that formed as the larger-degree corrective wave labeled (B):
A wave established the upper boundary of the triangle
B and D waves formed the lower boundary reference points
C and E waves created the converging upper boundary
The terminal E wave completed the triangle near the 75–77 zone, triggering the five-wave bearish impulse that is currently reaching its final stages
From the triangle's (B)/(E) terminal high, the five-wave bearish sequence launched:
Wave 1: Dropped from the triangle terminal toward approximately 61 — establishing the first structural downward leg.
Wave 2: Corrective rally toward approximately 71–72 — a significant counter-trend bounce that provided the launchpad for the most powerful wave of the sequence.
Wave 3: The most extended and powerful wave, subdividing internally into a complete (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) five-wave structure:
Internal (i) dropped
Internal (ii) corrected
Internal (iii) delivered the most aggressive sub-wave thrust
Internal (iv) produced a brief consolidation
Internal (v)/3 completed Wave 3 at approximately 54.776 — the deepest structural low of the sequence to date
Wave 4 — Complex Corrective Structure with Triangle (b) (NOW IN (c)-LEG):
From the Wave 3 low near 54.776, Wave 4 launched as a complex A-B-C corrective structure:
(a)-wave: The initial corrective rally from the 54.776 low, advancing toward approximately 61.189 — the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the Wave 3 decline. This level is labeled as 0.382 (61.18905) on the EWPlans chart. The (a)-wave reaching precisely this Fibonacci level is a structural confirmation that Wave 4 is respecting the expected corrective depth for a sequence where Wave 3 was the extended wave.
(b)-wave — Contracting Triangle (a-b-c-d-e): Following the (a)-wave peak near 61.189, XAG/USD entered a textbook contracting triangle as the (b) wave:
a leg: Declined from the (a) high toward approximately 57.50
b leg: Counter-trend bounce within the triangle toward approximately 60.93 — labeled b on the EWPlans chart
c leg: Corrective decline within the triangle toward approximately 56.50 — labeled c
d leg: Small bounce within the converging boundaries toward approximately 59.91 — labeled d
e leg: The terminal wave of the triangle, completing near approximately 56.00 — labeled e/(b) on the chart, sitting at the lower triangle trendline boundary
The precision of this contracting triangle — with clearly labeled a-b-c-d-e legs converging toward the apex — is a structural highlight of the XAG/USD Wave 4 corrective structure. The (e) terminal completing at the lower trendline provided the upside breakout trigger.
(c)-wave — NOW ADVANCING: Following the contracting triangle's (e) terminal completion near 56, the upside breakout launched the Wave 4 (c)-leg. This c-wave is now driving XAG/USD higher toward the 0.382 Fibonacci at 61.189 — the same level that the (a)-wave previously reached, and the natural structural ceiling for the Wave 4 corrective structure.
Current price at 59.913 is advancing through the upper portion of the (c)-wave's projected path toward 61.189.
Wave 5 / (C) / Z / (IV) — FINAL TARGET:
Once the Wave 4 (c)-wave exhausts near the 0.382 Fibonacci at 61.189, the Wave 5 / (C) / Z / (IV) final bearish impulse launches. This is the terminal wave of the entire five-wave sequence from the triangle top — and its projected target is 50.00 — shown clearly on the EWPlans chart as the structural destination for this final leg.
The Double Triangle Structure — Historical Context Within This Sequence
A notable structural feature of the XAG/USD wave count is the appearance of two contracting triangles within the same larger bearish sequence — at different wave degrees but in consistent positions.
First triangle: The large-scale A-B-C-D-E contracting triangle visible on the left side of the chart, which formed as the prior Wave (B) corrective top near the 75–77 zone. This triangle resolved lower, initiating the entire current five-wave bearish descent.
Second triangle: The smaller a-b-c-d-e contracting triangle that formed as the (b)-wave within Wave 4 of the current sequence — visible in the right portion of the chart with the a, b, c, d, e labels. This triangle resolved upward, triggering the (c)-leg advance currently in progress.
This structural parallel — two triangles at different degrees within the same sequence — is a fractal characteristic of Elliott Wave analysis that confirms the self-similar, repeating nature of market structure. The larger triangle defined the macro trend direction; the smaller triangle within Wave 4 has now provided the internal corrective structure that sets up the final Wave 5 thrust.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
The primary Elliott Wave scenario for XAG/USD unfolds in two clear sequential phases:
Phase 1 (Current — Wave 4 (c)-leg completion): The (c)-wave continues advancing from the current 59.913 toward:
Primary target: 61.189 (0.382 Fibonacci — the (a)-wave high and Wave 4 structural ceiling)
Price behavior — reversal candles, momentum divergence, volume patterns — near 61.189 will signal Wave 4 completion
The structural invalidation reference for the current bearish count sits at 63.27 — the prior (iv) internal wave level
Phase 2 (After Wave 4 — Wave 5 launch): Wave 5 launches from the Wave 4 completion near 61.189, initiating the final bearish thrust toward:
Primary target: 50.00 — the structural destination shown on the EWPlans chart
This represents a decline of approximately 1,120 points (approximately $11.19) from the Wave 4 ceiling
Wave 5 will subdivide internally into its own (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) structure
Key structural reference points:
63.27: Wave (iv) structural reference — invalidation level if closed above
61.189: 0.382 Fibonacci — Wave 4 (c)-leg ceiling and primary completion target
59.913: Current price — (c)-wave advancing
58.187: Near-term support within the (c)-leg
55.597 / 54.776: Wave 3 / (v) structural lows
50.00: Wave 5 / (C) / Z / (IV) primary target
Strategic Perspective for Traders
The XAG/USD H4 Elliott Wave setup provides one of the clearest structural frameworks for navigating silver in the current commodity landscape:
1. The 61.189 zone is the highest-quality Wave 4 completion reference. The (a)-wave high at 61.189 aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci creates a double structural reference zone for Wave 4 completion. When a (c)-wave of a corrective structure targets the same level as the prior (a)-wave high — while aligning with a key Fibonacci level — the analytical confidence in that zone as the Wave 4 ceiling is at its highest.
2. The contracting triangle (b) wave is the highest-reliability continuation signal in this count. The precise formation of the a-b-c-d-e contracting triangle within the Wave 4 (b) position — completing at the lower trendline and resolving upward into the (c)-leg — is the most structurally credible confirmation available that Wave 4 is an A-B-C zigzag in progress, not a trend reversal.
3. The 50.00 target carries the highest structural significance of any level in this analysis. The convergence of the round-number psychological support at 50.00 with the Elliott Wave Wave 5 projection creates the most analytically significant structural target in the entire silver sequence. This level — if reached — would define the terminal point of the entire 5/(C)/Z/(IV) corrective sequence from the 89.38 peak.
4. Wave 5 completion near 50.00 is the structural long opportunity of 2026 in silver. This is the most important strategic insight: the 50.00 zone is not just a downside target — it is the potential entry point for the most significant bullish structural opportunity in silver since the 89.38 peak was established. When the five-wave descent from 89.38 completes at 50.00, the Elliott Wave framework anticipates a major structural reversal.
5. Gold-silver correlation and DXY remain the primary macro drivers. XAG/USD's bearish Wave 5 thesis is structurally consistent with both XAU/USD's own Wave ⑤ structure targeting 3,703 and DXY's ongoing bullish sequence. The synchronized bearish completion in both metals — at structurally significant Fibonacci levels — would create the synchronized reversal conditions for a major precious metals recovery from historic structural lows.
Conclusion — Follow Silver's Wave Structure With EWPlans
XAG/USD is in the final structural phase of a multi-month Elliott Wave bearish sequence. Wave 4's (c)-leg is advancing toward the 61.189 structural ceiling, the contracting triangle (b) wave has confirmed the corrective structure's integrity, and Wave 5 targeting 50.00 is the terminal move that follows. The Elliott Wave framework delivers the map — from the current (c)-leg completion zone to the Wave 5 target and the structural opportunity that emerges at 50.00. This is the full picture that only wave analysis can provide.
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