XAU/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Bounce From 3,870 Tests Trendline — Primary Target Stays 3,703.69
Gold’s correction from the 4,687 X/(c) high is in its final leg. After a sharp bounce from 3,870.03, price sits at 4,033, testing the descending trendline. Two scenarios are mapped.
Where Is XAU/USD Right Now?
Wave (a): five-wave decline to ≈4,282
Wave (b): A-B-C-D-E contracting triangle, ≈4,371
Wave (c): i-ii-iii-iv-v, with a second contracting triangle at iv (≈4,198), and the v-leg low at 3,870.03
Two Scenarios
Alternative 1 (primary): The bounce is a corrective pause. Price stalls near the trendline or the 4,110–4,198 zone, then Wave v extends toward the 0.5 Fibonacci at 3,703.69.
Alternative 2: 3,870.03 completed (c)/Z/(4), and price recovers toward 4,371.
Key Levels
4,696.62: Invalid Level
4,371.25 / 4,244.07: resistance
4,198.63 / 4,110.69: key resistance for Alt. 1
4,033.29: current price
4,019.03 / 3,941.75: support
3,870.03: bounce low
3,703.69: 0.5 Fibonacci target
Strategic Perspective
4,110–4,198 is the zone that decides between the scenarios: rejection favours Alt. 1, a sustained close above 4,198.63 weakens it.
A break below 3,870.03 would strengthen Alt. 1 and open the path toward 3,703.69.
DXY direction and Fed policy remain the main external drivers.
Conclusion
The primary map still targets 3,703.69, with a clear alternative on the chart. At EWPlans, we update H4 and D1 wave counts on 39 instruments every day.