XAU/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold Bottoms at 3,941 — Wave (iii) Active, Wave (v) Targets 4,382
Gold may have just printed one of the most important structural lows of 2026. After a prolonged multi-week corrective decline from the 4,773 highs — tracing a complex Elliott Wave sequence through multiple sub-wave structures — XAU/USD reached the v/(c) terminal low at 3,941.75 and immediately launched a new five-wave bullish impulse. Wave (i) and (ii) are complete, Wave (iii) is now active at 4,141, and the structural target for Wave (v) sits at the 4,320–4,382 zone. Here is the complete Elliott Wave breakdown of gold's current setup.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is XAU/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The XAU/USD H4 Elliott Wave story for mid-2026 begins with the conclusion of an extended corrective sequence that traced its origins from the April 2026 highs. The full corrective structure unfolded across several degrees:
Initial Decline from April highs (i-ii-iii-iv-v): From the early April peak near 4,800+, a five-wave decline unfolded with the i-ii-iii-iv-v structure driving price to the v/(a) low at approximately 4,499 — coinciding precisely with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, a classic terminal zone for impulsive waves.
(b) wave corrective rally: Following the (a) wave low, a corrective (b) wave bounced price back toward 4,773 — re-establishing the prior resistance zone before the next leg lower began.
①-②-③ Sequence from (b) top: From the 4,773 (b) high, a new downward structure developed:
Wave ① dropped to approximately 4,499
Wave ② produced a corrective rally toward 4,730
Wave ③ began the most extended decline, internally developing a complex (A)-(B)-(C) structure followed by a ④(E) contracting triangle — the terminal consolidation before the final thrust lower
v/(c)/(iii) Terminal Low — 3,941.75: The entire corrective sequence from the 4,773 high concluded with the v/(c) low at 3,941.75 — the structural base that now defines the entire new bullish count as the Invalid Level. This level represents the deepest corrective point in the entire multi-week decline and marks the structural shift point for gold's directional bias.
New Bullish Impulse — NOW ACTIVE:
From the 3,941.75 structural low, a fresh five-wave bullish impulse launched with clear sub-wave integrity:
Wave (i): Rallied from the 3,941 low to approximately 4,080 — the first impulsive leg of the new bullish sequence, establishing the directional bias and confirming that the corrective structure is complete.
Wave (ii): Produced a corrective pullback from the (i) high back toward the 3,941.75 Invalid Level zone, holding the structural floor and confirming that the bullish count remains intact. The precise respect of the Invalid Level during the (ii) correction is a critical structural confirmation.
Wave (iii) — NOW ACTIVE: The most powerful sub-wave of the new bullish impulse has launched from the (ii) low. Wave (iii) has already driven price from the (ii) corrective low to approximately 4,174 — current price as of July 6, 2026 at 4,141.12 — and the wave is continuing to develop.
Wave (iv) — EXPECTED NEXT: After Wave (iii) completes near the 4,174+ zone, a brief corrective Wave (iv) is expected to pull price back toward the 4,085–4,100 zone before the final wave launches.
Wave (v) — FINAL TARGET: Once Wave (iv) completes, Wave (v) drives the final leg of the new bullish impulse toward the mapped target zone of 4,320–4,382 — the structural destination that would complete this five-wave recovery sequence.
The Structural Significance of the 3,941 Low
The 3,941.75 level deserves specific attention as a structural anchor for the entire bullish setup.
In Elliott Wave analysis, the terminal low of a multi-degree corrective sequence carries significant structural weight — particularly when it coincides with key Fibonacci levels and produces an immediate impulsive response. The 3,941.75 low demonstrates several characteristics consistent with a high-quality structural base:
1. Terminal wave exhaustion: The v/(c) labeling on the EWPlans chart indicates this is the fifth wave of the (c) leg of the corrective sequence — a terminal sub-wave that, by definition, ends the corrective structure and sets up the next impulsive move.
2. Immediate impulse response: Gold's reaction from 3,941.75 was immediate and impulsive — not a slow grind, but a directional launch that produced Wave (i) and (ii) with clear Elliott Wave sub-wave structure, confirming the corrective sequence is genuinely complete.
3. Invalid Level functionality: The 3,941.75 level now functions as the hard structural floor for the entire bullish count. The Wave (ii) correction tested this zone and held, providing additional confirmation that the level is structurally significant and defended.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
The primary Elliott Wave scenario is well-defined: Wave (iii) continues toward and potentially beyond the 4,174 current high, Wave (iv) produces a brief corrective pullback to the 4,085–4,100 zone, and Wave (v) then drives the final bullish leg toward the 4,320–4,382 target zone.
The 4,320–4,382 target range is framed by the Fibonacci structure of the entire five-wave sequence from 3,941.75 and the prior structural reference of the 4,382.48 level visible on the chart. This zone represents the logical completion point for the first complete five-wave bullish impulse from the structural low.
Key structural milestones to monitor:
3,941.75: Hard invalidation floor — no H4 close below this
4,085–4,100: Expected Wave (iv) corrective target zone
4,141.12: Current price — Wave (iii) active
4,174.44: Current Wave (iii) high — structural reference
4,320–4,382: Wave (v) primary target zone
4,500.45: Major structural resistance above the target zone
Strategic Perspective for Traders
The XAU/USD H4 Elliott Wave setup represents one of the most structurally significant bullish setups in gold for 2026:
1. The 3,941.75 Invalid Level is the anchor for the entire bullish thesis. As long as gold maintains H4 closes above 3,941.75, the five-wave bullish impulse count remains valid. This gives traders a clear, non-ambiguous structural reference for risk management.
2. Wave (iv) is the structural entry opportunity — not a threat. The expected Wave (iv) correction toward 4,085–4,100 is a normal and necessary part of the five-wave bullish structure. In a properly-developing impulse, fourth waves reset momentum and sentiment before the fifth wave completes the sequence. A pullback to 4,085–4,100 is the setup — not the signal to exit.
3. Wave (iii) momentum confirms the structural quality of the 3,941 low. The strength of the current Wave (iii) advance — covering over 230 points from the (ii) low — is consistent with a high-quality third wave in a genuine new bullish impulse. Weak third waves often signal that the corrective low hasn't been properly established; this one does not exhibit that characteristic.
4. The 4,320–4,382 target zone has structural significance beyond this count. The 4,382.48 level visible on the EWPlans chart is a prior structural reference from the June corrective sequence. A Wave (v) recovery toward this zone would not only complete the five-wave impulse but also test a meaningful prior structural level — adding technical significance to the target.
5. DXY and macro context are critical cross-references. With DXY's Wave ③ targeting 102.397, sustained dollar strength is the primary headwind for this XAU/USD bullish count. Monitoring DXY for Wave ③ completion signals will provide advance warning of potential tailwinds for gold's Wave (v) and beyond.
Conclusion — Follow Gold's Wave Structure With EWPlans
XAU/USD is at one of its most significant structural turning points of 2026. The 3,941.75 structural low has launched a new five-wave bullish impulse, Wave (iii) is active at 4,141, and the Wave (v) target of 4,320–4,382 maps the recovery trajectory with Elliott Wave precision. Whether you are positioning for the Wave (iv) entry opportunity or monitoring the Wave (v) completion, the structural framework gives you the map that price action alone cannot provide.
At EWPlans, we publish H4 and D1 Elliott Wave analysis on XAU/USD and 38 other instruments every single day. Our EWP Nexus-powered wave counts give commodities and forex traders the structural edge to navigate gold's complex wave landscape with clarity and confidence.
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