XAG/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave ④ Triangle Forms at 61.28 — Wave ⑤ Targets 0.786 Fibonacci at 58.29
Silver's Elliott Wave structure is in the final stages of a detailed corrective sequence from the major (v)/① high near 71.17. After a sharp Wave ③ decline to approximately 60.37, Wave ④ is now forming a small contracting triangle near the 0.618 Fibonacci at 61.041. Once this triangle resolves, Wave ⑤ is projected to deliver the final leg of the broader correction toward the 0.786 Fibonacci at 58.28573. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is XAG/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The XAG/USD H4 Elliott Wave picture for early October 2026 continues the structure built from the major 5/(C)/y/(IV) structural base, which launched a bullish impulse through (i)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) to the (v)/① high near 71.176.
Wave ② — Complex Corrective Structure:
From the 71.176 high, Wave ② has developed through a multi-leg corrective sequence:
a-b-(x)/c/(w)-b: An extended complex corrective phase with multiple sub-legs declining and bouncing between approximately 68 and 62
①/a wave: Declining to approximately 63.00
②/b wave: Corrective bounce to approximately 65.09
③ wave: The sharpest decline of this phase — driving to approximately 60.37
Wave ④ — Small Contracting Triangle (NOW ACTIVE):
From the ③ low near 60.37, Wave ④ has launched as a small contracting triangle — visible on the EWPlans chart as the red converging trendlines. The triangle is developing near the 0.618 Fibonacci at 61.041, with current price at 61.28050 consolidating within its boundaries.
Wave ⑤ — THE FINAL LEG:
Once the Wave ④ triangle resolves, Wave ⑤ is projected to deliver the final corrective leg toward the 0.786 Fibonacci at 58.28573 — shown by the red arrow on the EWPlans chart. This would complete the broader Wave ② corrective sequence from the 71.176 high.
Why the Wave ④ Triangle Matters
A contracting triangle in the Wave ④ position is a well-recognised Elliott Wave pattern that typically precedes the final wave of a sequence. Its presence here, following the sharp Wave ③ decline, is consistent with the correction nearing its final stages before Wave ⑤ completes the move toward 58.29.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
Current Phase — Wave ④ triangle resolving:
Price is consolidating between approximately 60.37 and 62.31, with the 0.618 Fibonacci at 61.041 as an internal reference.
Next Phase — Wave ⑤ to 58.29:
Once the triangle resolves lower, Wave ⑤ targets the 0.786 Fibonacci at 58.28573.
Key structural reference points:
71.176: (v)/① high — major resistance
67.547: (x) wave reference
62.310: ④ triangle upper boundary
61.28050: Current price
60.370: ③ wave low
58.28573: Wave ⑤ primary target
56.564: Deeper structural reference
54.776: Invalid Level
Strategic Perspective for Traders
1. The 61.04–62.31 zone is the active Wave ④ triangle range. A clean breakdown from this range would confirm Wave ⑤ has launched toward 58.29.
2. The 54.776 Invalid Level provides structural confidence. With the Wave ⑤ target at 58.29 sitting well above this level, the structural risk framework remains clear.
3. DXY and XAU correlation remain key macro variables. Silver's correction is occurring alongside a broader dollar advance and a related correction in gold, reinforcing the structural direction.
Conclusion — Follow Silver's Wave Structure With EWPlans
XAG/USD is in the final structural phase of its correction from the 71.176 high. Wave ④'s small triangle is resolving near 61.28, and Wave ⑤ targeting 58.286 is the move that follows.
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