Explore the upcoming 1.14735 Fibonacci support and wave (iii) downward momentum in the EUR/USD pair using Elliott Wave Theory. Read our live forex analysis!
The Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) pair, the most heavily traded major pair in global foreign exchange, appears to have wrapped up its macro corrective phase and slipped into full control of the bears. Profitability in the Forex market relies on accurately evaluating the strength and direction of waves. Elliott Wave Theory clarifies the institutional psychology driving price movements, establishing precise, reliable targets ahead of us.
Today, we direct our technical focus toward the EUR/USD 4-hour (4H) chart. The latest wave count explains with solid mathematical backing why the downside appetite remains incredibly high and which key benchmarks are set to be tested in the coming sessions.
The Elliott Wave Matrix: Powerful Third Wave (iii) Activated
By evaluating the price structure leading up to the absolute highs, we observe that the pair successfully rounded off its macro corrective structure—labeled as wave (2) / C—close to the 1.18491 territory. The subsequent downward cycle initiated from this peak is currently displaying a textbook sub-wave structure:
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Waves (i) and (ii) Confirmed: Following the initial downward impulse wave (i), price rebounded in a clean corrective a-b-c format to form the wave (ii) peak, confirming the broader bearish shift.
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Current Momentum - Wave (iii): The pair is currently operating inside downward impulse wave (iii), which is traditionally engineered to be the longest, steepest, and most aggressive phase within wave theory. The recent vertical drop perfectly validates this structural behavior.
The Master Plan and the Fibonacci 1.618 Extension Target
Guided by the thick red arrow on our chart, this downtrend contains a primary technical anchor where sellers will likely book profits and buyers might look for scale-in relief rallies.
The immediate target for the bears is locked at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of 1.14735. Pullbacks leading down into this zone should technically be treated as routine, healthy trend progression.
Summary Table: Key EUR/USD Technical Benchmarks
| Wave Position | Critical Level | Technical Outlook & Strategy |
| Wave (2) / C Peak | ~1.18491 | Starting Point of the Major Downtrend Cycle. |
| Wave (ii) High | ~1.17879 | Trend Confirmation Zone & Short-term Resistance. |
| Wave (iii) Target | 1.14735 (Fib 1.618) | Primary Bear Target, Major Support Base. |
Strategic Playbook for Traders
Given the transparent bearish landscape on the EUR/USD pair, rushing into "bottom fishing" counter-trend long positions carries exceptional risk. Any short-term counter-trend bounces should simply be evaluated as secondary shorting triggers until wave (iii) concludes structurally. Strategically, traders should monitor for momentum exhaustion around 1.14735 and manage trend-aligned exposures accordingly until that zone is checked off.
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